PNR prediction
Enter your 10-digit PNR to see live booking status and a confirmation probability for your current RAC or waitlist position.
Check PNR predictionConfirmation probability
How likely is your ticket to confirm?
RailAI turns your booking status and a train’s confirmation history into a single probability, with a plain-language read and our working shown. Pick a tool below, or read on to learn how to interpret the result.
Choose your prediction tool
Every tool below runs on the same prediction engine and shows the same signal, confidence band and reasoning. Start with the one that matches what you have in hand.
RAC prediction
You can already travel on RAC. See how likely it is to progress to a full confirmed berth before the chart is prepared.
Explore RAC predictionWaitlist prediction
GNWL, RLWL, PQWL and Tatkal waitlists clear very differently. Find out how your waitlist type affects your chances.
Explore waitlist chancesWaitlist calculator
No PNR yet? Estimate the chances from just a class, quota, waitlist type and position, before you commit to a booking.
Open the calculatorCompare options
Run several scenarios side by side, such as different classes, quotas or positions, to see which option has the better odds.
Compare scenariosMy checks
Revisit the predictions you've already run. Your history stays on this device only, with no account or sign-in needed.
View my checksPredictions are indicative only and do not guarantee ticket confirmation or berth allotment.
Not sure where to start?
Which tool should you use?
Match your situation to the right tool.
- I have a ticket and its PNRPNR prediction
- My ticket shows RACRAC prediction
- My ticket shows a waitlist and I want to learn how it worksWaitlist prediction
- I haven't booked yet, or only know the positionWaitlist calculator
- I'm choosing between classes, quotas or datesCompare options
- I want to see a prediction I ran earlierMy checks
Reading the signal
Green, yellow, red
Every probability maps to a railway signal aspect, so you can read your position at a glance before you dig into the number.
green · 75–100%
Clear road ahead
yellow · 40–74%
Proceed with caution
red · Below 40%
Odds are against you
Confidence, not just a number
How much to trust a given prediction
The same percentage can rest on years of data or on a thin sample. That’s why every result carries a confidence band, so you know how much weight it can bear.
High confidence
Backed by a strong run of past journeys on this exact train and class.
Medium confidence
Backed by comparable journeys on this route.
Low confidence
Backed by limited history — treat as a rough read.
Estimated
No direct history yet, so this is a model estimate.
What shapes a prediction
Three things move the number
No single input decides your chances. We weigh them together, and show which ones did the work on every result.
Historical outcomes
How the same train, class and quota have actually confirmed in the past, which is the strongest signal we have.
Your booking status
Confirmed, RAC or waitlisted, plus the waitlist type. Each behaves differently and is weighed differently.
Position & timing
Your place in the queue and how far you are from departure, since movement clusters near the final chart.
Under the hood
A four-step method that always returns a number
The engine tries each step in order and stops at the first one with enough evidence. Real outcomes always come first, and a model estimate is only the last resort. Every result tells you which step it came from.
- 01
Exact real history
High confidence
If enough real outcomes exist for your exact train, class, quota, waitlist type and position, we use the observed confirmation rate.
- 02
Aggregated history
Medium confidence
Not enough exact matches? We widen the match by dropping the narrowest details and use comparable journeys instead.
- 03
Rules-based heuristic
Low confidence
With thin history, a transparent rules model scores your ticket on waitlist type, position, class, quota and days left.
- 04
Model estimate
Estimated
As a last resort, a trained model estimates the odds from the same attributes, and the result is clearly labelled as an estimate.
Know your ticket status before you predict
The letters before your waitlist number matter as much as the number itself. Here’s what each common status means for your odds.
- GNWLGeneral waitlist
- Issued for the train's main quota from its originating or major stations. It is usually the most likely waitlist to clear.
- RLWLRemote location waitlist
- Issued for stations along the route rather than the starting point, so it moves differently and often more slowly than GNWL.
- PQWLPooled quota waitlist
- Drawn from a quota shared across a group of stations. It depends on cancellations within that pool, so it can be harder to clear.
- TQWL / CKWLTatkal quota waitlist
- Booked against the Tatkal quota, which has fewer cancellations and refunds. It is generally the hardest waitlist to see confirmed.
- RACReservation against cancellation
- You can board and share a berth. It becomes a full berth when a confirmed passenger cancels or doesn't travel.
- CNFConfirmed
- A berth or seat is assigned. No prediction is needed, but the coach and berth can be finalised only when the chart is prepared.
Want the detail? Read our waitlist prediction guide or the railway guide to quotas, classes and codes.
How to read your result and plan around it
A probability is most useful when it changes what you do. These habits help you act on it sensibly.
- 1
Check the waitlist type first
Two tickets at WL 20 can have very different odds. GNWL and RLWL behave differently, so always read the prefix before the number.
- 2
Look at days to departure
Cancellations tend to pile up as the journey approaches. A ticket that looks weak today can still move, so recheck as the date nears.
- 3
Compare dates and classes
A different date, a nearby class or another train on the same route can improve your chances. Use the compare tool to test a few.
- 4
Keep a backup until it's settled
Don't cancel your alternatives until the status is confirmed. Even a green signal is an estimate, not a promise.
Plan your booking around the odds
Good timing improves your chances before you even look at a prediction. These tools help you book at the right moment.
Booking date calculator
Work out the exact date booking opens for your journey, so you can get in line early.
Find booking dateChart preparation time
Know roughly when the reservation chart is prepared. Most waitlist movement happens before it.
Check chart timingSeat availability
Compare class-wise availability across dates, since a quieter date can have better odds.
Check availabilityThe honest part
A prediction is not a guarantee
Confirmation depends on other passengers cancelling, right up to the moment the reservation chart is prepared. We estimate that from patterns; we can’t see the future. Treat a strong signal as encouraging, not certain, and keep a backup until your status is settled.
When we don’t have enough history for a confident read, we tell you on the result and label it as an estimate, rather than dressing up a guess as data. RailAI is not affiliated with IRCTC or Indian Railways.
Frequently asked questions about ticket prediction
How does RailAI predict whether my waitlisted ticket will confirm?
RailAI looks at your booking status, waitlist type, position, class, quota and days left to departure. It then runs a four-step method: real history for your exact ticket first, then comparable journeys, then a rules-based heuristic, and finally a model estimate. Each result shows which step produced it and how confident it is.
Is the prediction a guarantee that my ticket will be confirmed?
No. A prediction is a probability, not a guarantee. Confirmation depends on other passengers cancelling, right up until the reservation chart is prepared. A high signal is encouraging, but you should keep a backup plan until your status is settled.
What do the green, yellow and red signals mean?
Green means a probability of 75% or more, so the ticket is likely to confirm. Yellow covers 40% to 74%, where it could go either way. Red means below 40%, where the odds are against you. The signal is a quick visual read, and the percentage and confidence band give the detail.
Why is my prediction labelled "Estimated"?
It means there isn't enough directly relevant history yet for your ticket's exact combination of train, class, quota and position, so the result comes from a model estimate. These results are always labelled, and they improve as more real outcomes are collected.
Can I check the chances without a PNR?
Yes. The waitlist calculator needs only your class, quota, waitlist type and position. It's useful when you're weighing a booking you haven't made yet, or comparing different options.
Which waitlist type has the best chance of confirming?
In general, GNWL (general waitlist) clears most often, while remote-location, pooled-quota and Tatkal waitlists clear less often. The exact odds still depend on the train, class, your position and how close the departure is, so check your own ticket rather than relying on the type alone.
Do you store my PNR?
No. Raw PNRs are never stored. We keep only a salted one-way hash and an anonymised ticket signature used for statistics. The history on the My checks page stays on your own device.
Ready to see your odds?
Paste your PNR for a live status and prediction. It takes a few seconds, and nothing is stored against your name.