How likely is your ticket to confirm?
Aspect turns your booking status and a train's confirmation history into a single probability — with a plain-language read and our working shown. Here's how to interpret it.
Green, yellow, red
Every probability maps to a railway signal aspect, so you can read your position at a glance before you dig into the number.
green · 75–100%
Clear road ahead
yellow · 40–74%
Proceed with caution
red · Below 40%
Odds are against you
How much to trust a given prediction
The same percentage can rest on years of data or on a thin sample. That’s why every result carries a confidence band — so you know how much weight it can bear.
Backed by a strong run of past journeys on this exact train and class.
Backed by comparable journeys on this route.
Backed by limited history — treat as a rough read.
No direct history yet, so this is a model estimate.
Three things move the number
No single input decides your chances. We weigh them together, and show which ones did the work on every result.
Historical outcomes
How the same train, class and quota have actually confirmed in the past — the strongest signal we have.
Your booking status
Confirmed, RAC or waitlisted, plus the waitlist type. Each behaves differently and is weighed differently.
Position & timing
Your place in the queue and how far you are from departure, since movement clusters near the final chart.
A prediction is not a guarantee
Confirmation depends on other passengers cancelling, right up to the moment the reservation chart is prepared. We estimate that from patterns — we can’t see the future. Treat a strong signal as encouraging, not certain, and keep a backup until your status is settled.