How the prediction is made
No black box. Aspect follows a transparent four-step method that always leans on real outcomes first and tells you how much history sits behind every number.
Three kinds of input
A prediction combines your specific booking with what has actually happened to similar tickets before. Nothing here is invented — where a detail is missing, we say so.
Your booking
Train, class, quota, and your status — confirmed, RAC or waitlisted — plus the waitlist type and your position in the queue.
Historical outcomes
How tickets on the same train, class, quota and waitlist type have actually resolved by departure, bucketed by position and days-to-go.
Timing
How far you are from departure, since confirmations cluster as the reservation chart nears and cancellation charges step up.
We use the best evidence available, and grade it
The engine walks these steps in order and stops at the first one with enough evidence. Each step carries its own confidence band, so a number is never presented as more certain than it is.
Exact match
High confidenceThe strongest signal: how this exact combination has cleared before, for positions within five of yours. Used when there's a solid run of past journeys behind it.
Same train · class · quota · waitlist type · position ±5 · sufficient sample
Route match
Medium confidenceWhen the exact combination is thin, we widen to the same route, class and waitlist type — still real outcomes, just a broader pool.
Same route · class · waitlist type
Train-level average
Low confidenceIf route history is also limited, we fall back to how this train has performed overall. A rough read, and labelled as one.
Any historical outcomes for this train
Model estimate
EstimatedWith no usable history yet, a fine-tuned model provides an estimate — and if that's unavailable, a deterministic fallback does. Always clearly marked as an estimate, and replaced automatically once real outcomes exist.
No historical samples · estimate cached and superseded by real data
The probability, then the read
The percentage maps to a railway signal aspect so you can act on it at a glance. A confirmed ticket short-circuits to a full green — there’s nothing left to predict.
green · 75–100%
Clear road ahead
yellow · 40–74%
Proceed with caution
red · Below 40%
Odds are against you
What keeps a prediction honest
Real data beats estimates, always
The chain tries real historical steps first. The moment genuine outcomes exist for your combination, they replace any earlier estimate — automatically.
Missing details never count against you
If your class, quota or waitlist type is unknown, we treat it as unknown — never as a negative signal — and tell you what we assumed.
An estimate is labelled an estimate
Step-four results carry an explicit note and an “Estimated” band. We never dress a model guess up as settled history.
What a prediction can’t do
Confirmation depends on other passengers cancelling, right up to the moment the chart is prepared. We estimate that from patterns; we can’t see individual decisions, sudden quota changes, or operational disruptions. A high probability means the odds are in your favour — not that the outcome is settled.
Go deeper
See how we measure ourselves
Transparency doesn't stop at the method. Here's how we think about accuracy — honestly, including what we can't yet claim.